[SfN] Gallup Poll

[steven paul varel]

On CNN today, I saw the results of the latest Gallup Poll (taken after the
last debate).  Bush led with 51%, Gore had 40%, Nader had 4%, and Buchanan
at 1%; there was a 4% margin of error.  This is a shift from Gallup
numbers reported by CNN at the beginning of the month that showed Bush
with 47% and Gore with 44%.  That poll showed the race to be even with the
difference between the candidates being less than the margin of error.
While I am glad to hear that Nader's share of the vote was reported on
CNN (for this is the first time I had heard polling data that included
Nader reported on a national news station, it may not have been the only 
time it happen though), the reports on Bush and Gore are troubling to me.  

Now I am not a big fan of Gore, but it seems to me
that this is a very negitive sign to see that a majority of Americans seem
to be leaning towards voting for a Republican candidate for president.
Even though we have information that shows that Gore seems to have
attempted to make himself appear to be a person that is definitely
pro-choice, a person that is an environmentalist, and a person that will
make sure that all Americans enjoy in the "economic prosperity" (etc.)
while this is not the case, it seems that many people do not know this
(from what I have seen this information is not widely reported in the
media, so this assumption seems valid).  

If most people do not know about
this, then it would at least be comforting to know that most people were
planning on voting for Gore because it would show us that most people
would take similar positions as us on these issues.  It would show us that
these people were merely tricked into voting for Gore while they actually
hold some liberal/progressive opinions on the issues (I do not
think that anyone who supports Gore knowing about how the welfare reform
policies pushed through by Gore drastically increased the poverty rates of
women and children could be considered progessive, but you know what I
mean in using this term here).  For this reason, this poll seems
particularly troubling.  

I have seen information that puts Gore in the lead not long ago.  One
interesting thing that I heard on C-Span2 by some author talking about his
book was that there exists some type of stock in which people can somehow
invest/bet on who will win the presidency.  He said that Gore's stock was
sold for $0.57 and Bush's for $0.43, and then confidently stated that Gore
would win the election.  This information, however, like other relatively
recent information that I have received that puts Gore in the lead seems
to be from sources that I for some reason do not completely trust (I
should probably note here that I really have trouble completely trusting
any information from any source because I have experienced situations in
which things that I felt quite certain about have been seemingly proven
to be false leaving me with a higher degree of uncertainty about 
everything).  

On the other hand, I have been finding it increasingly difficult to trust
sources such as CNN which seem to have proclaimed Bush to be the winner of
all of the presidential debates despite the fact that it seemed fairly
obvious in the last debate in that Bush does not even know what the
supreme court's definition of affirmative action is.  It seems to me that
this is something that a person running for president should know whether
they are for or against the policy. 

Still, I am inclined to believe
Gallup polls if for no other reason, that the fact that I was taught that
they are a credible polling source in my statistics class.  I am, however,
aware of the fact that you should not completely trust any information
that you learn here in classes at the university because of the fact that
the board of trustees has a certain degree of influence over what you
learn through their influence on hiring and firing professors (there have 
been many reports of professors being fired even after their tenure
because they expressed certain political beliefs or actions). If fact, in
Illinois, the members that make up the boards of
trustees of public universities are now appointed by the governor
instead of elected by the people like they used to be (We can
thank Jim Edgar for this change form elected boards to governor appointed
boards.  An interesting side note about Edgar is that he has been granted
an honorary professorship at this university.  I think the effects of
money and power through political connections on oppurtunity are
demonstrated perfectly by the fact that this man was given an honorary
professorship).  

So what do you think, is the polling information reported
by the media accurate?  I guess I got to this question simply because I
find it hard to believe that a majority of the people could be stupid
enough to be taken in by Bush's idiocy.  Talk about the blind leading the
blind.  

Anyway, I guess the answer to this question is not that relavent to our
activities.  What we need to know is whether it is true in Illinois that
that people can safely vote for Nader without helping Bush win the
election.  I have heard that this is true.  Many people that I have
talked to recently, though, have expressed the concern that the
information I have heard about this might be biased because I have heard
it from people who want others to vote for Nader.  So because of this, I
need to know of a source that I can convince people to believe which shows
it is unlikely that Illinois electoral votes will be influenced by a few
more people voting for Nader over Gore (this obviously only applies if it 
is true that there is a significant margin of victory in Illinois for one 
of the candidates, as I do not wish to present false information, but I
assume this is true because that is what I have been hearing).  Does
anyone know of such a source? (it would be helpful if it came from some
credible source updated with new polling information frecuently online so
it would be easily accessible
for me to check it regularly and keep updated on the situation as the
election day draws nearer, if such a thing exists).  This is very
important because I know some
people (who hold strongly to the fact the Gore is the lesser of two
evils and that they are worried about what Bush will do to the
country) that will definitely vote for Nader if they know that the race
is not close enough for their vote to make the difference between Bush and
Gore.